The infection rate soars by 34% within a week, and the second wave of new crown epidemic is hitting the whole of Europe

The Czechs are facing a series of new laws and restrictions that take effect on October 14th: In this country where beer is the world’s favorite drinker, bars that are an important part of people’s daily lives will have to close at 8 pm; restaurants are the same. And there can be no more than 4 guests sitting at the same table; theaters, cinemas, sports clubs, and fitness centers have been ordered to close; shopping malls are not allowed to provide Wi-Fi to prevent young people from gathering there; shop customers only allow two people at most Traveling in groups; most schools are closed and moved to distance learning. Children between 12 and 15 years old will take turns in class...

These dazzling new regulations promulgated on the 12th will be implemented until November 3rd. Many people are surprised by this because the government has promised not to restore comprehensive restrictions.

The United Kingdom is another country that has stated that it will not adopt a comprehensive blockade policy for the second time. Now the government is also under tremendous pressure to break its promise. On October 13, local time, there were 17,234 newly confirmed cases in the UK, and the total number of infections reached 63,492; on the same day, there were 143 new deaths, and the total number of deaths was 43,018. Northern Ireland took the lead in announcing the closure of schools and restaurants on the evening of the 13th. British opposition leader Keir Starmer urged the government to implement a complete nationwide lockdown for at least two weeks as soon as possible, criticizing Downing Street for "losing control of the new crown virus."

On Tuesday (13th) local time, the French health department reported 12,993 new infections, which was higher than the 8,505 cases on Monday, but lower than the 26,896 cases on Saturday and 16,101 on Sunday. The number of ICU patients in France has been at a three-month high, and nine major cities including Paris, Marseille, and Lyon have entered the highest alert state of the epidemic. Bars, gyms and swimming pools are closed, and public gatherings are prohibited. French President Emmanuel Macron delivered a national television speech on the 14th local time and is expected to announce new restrictions.

The epidemic in Belgium, the center of European politics, has also sounded the alarm, and experts are discussing the possibility of restarting the lockdown. On the evening of the 13th, the Netherlands announced a new round of social restrictions such as the closure of cafes and restaurants. New cases in the Netherlands set a record that day, with nearly 7,400 new infections within 24 hours.

The World Health Organization reported on the evening of the 13th that weekly new infections in Europe are setting the highest record since the outbreak at the beginning of the year, and the infection rate in the entire European region, including Russia, has risen by 34%. With the frequent emergencies of the epidemic, European governments are increasing restrictions to curb the spread of the virus, struggling to find the best combination of epidemic prevention and anti-epidemic measures that minimize economic damage.

The devastating impact of the new crown virus epidemic on the job market is showing. The British labor market has experienced the fastest rate of deterioration in the unemployment rate since the 2008 financial crisis, and the number of corporate layoffs has also increased at the fastest rate on record. ING analyst James Smith pointed out that although the current unemployment rate in the UK is still at a low level of 4.5% after the rapid increase, the unemployment rate may reach 10% this winter.

According to tracking data from Johns Hopkins University, there have been more than 38 million cases of new coronavirus infections worldwide, with more than 1.08 million deaths. Finance ministers and central bank governors of the G20 member states held a video dialogue on Wednesday to discuss how to restart the world economy after the pandemic.

The second round is fierce, countries have tightened restrictions

In Prague, the capital of the Czech Republic, many citizens participated in the 500-meter-long open-air dinner held on the Charles Bridge at the end of June this year to celebrate the unblocking and the "end" of the new crown virus crisis. At that time, this country with a population of 10.7 million had 150 new infections every day, with a total of 11,700 infections, and only 347 deaths from the new crown were recorded in three months.

In the first wave of new coronavirus infections in Europe this spring, the Czech Republic, located in Central Europe, was relatively mild. At that time, the Czech government announced the closure of the border and halted most economic activities. People were required to stay at home as much as possible and wear masks in indoor and outdoor public places. The Czech government was also praised for its rapid response to the new crown epidemic.

But now, the number of new cases per day in the Czech Republic is the largest and fastest growing in Europe. The cumulative number of infections has soared from about 25,000 in early September to close to 120,000. The cumulative death toll is expected to exceed 1,000 soon.

In the past week alone, the number of hospitalizations for the new crown patients in the Czech Republic doubled to 2,106. Some hospitals had to reduce the number of non-emergency care beds in preparation for the further rise of new crown patients.

Even more frightening is that the country’s positive rate of test results is as high as 30%, and the rapid response required by the testing and tracking system is not satisfactory.

The Czech Health Minister Roman Prymula is himself an epidemiologist. He told the people all over the country at a television news conference on October 12: "The difficult time is here and we need to go all out."

Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis warned that a new blockade would not be ruled out and urged people not to go out on weekends. Babis had earlier rejected plans to re-enact mask regulations. The government's recent series of new measures were approved "too late."

In Europe, the severity of the epidemic in Belgium is second only to that of the Czech Republic, and experts in this country are already discussing the possibility of closing the city again. According to the latest data from the Belgian National Institute of Health, an average of 4,154 newly diagnosed cases were diagnosed every day from October 2 to 8, a significant increase of 89% from the previous week. According to the statistics of the European Center for Disease Control and Prevention (ECDC), Belgium's infections have risen to 405 cases per 100,000 population in the past 14 days, second only to the Czech Republic's 493 cases and ranking second among the most affected countries in Europe.

On the evening of the 13th, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte announced at a national television news conference that the Netherlands must restore some of the blockade, including closing bars and restaurants, allowing only take-out or delivery, and prohibiting night sales of alcohol. The measures took effect on the 14th for a period of two weeks.

In recent weeks, the number of new crown cases in the Netherlands has also continued to surge, making the country one of the highest per capita infection rates in the world. What's worrying is that due to the shortage of testing facilities and staff, not all people with symptoms can get tested in time.

Root has always wanted to avoid re-imposing strict restrictions, fearing that this will damage the fragile economic recovery, but now he has to take action, otherwise the medical system will face overload.

On Tuesday night local time, the Netherlands announced a new round of severe social restrictions, including closing cafes and restaurants, and prohibiting night sales of alcohol. Bars and restaurants in the Netherlands have been closed to prevent a surge in cases of new coronavirus infections.

Among the major European countries, Germany is recognized as a model for responding to the new crown epidemic in Europe this spring. The infection rate has remained at a low level throughout the summer. However, as the temperature drops in autumn, the number of cases has increased significantly, especially in large cities such as Berlin and Frankfurt. The rate has risen, and the number of new cases per day is currently close to 5,000, reaching the highest level since April.

According to data from the Robert Koch Institute for Infectious Diseases (RKI), Germany added 5,132 new cases on the 13th, bringing the total number of infections to 334,585; as of the evening of October 14, Beijing time, there were 43 new deaths, and cumulative deaths The number of people is 9680.

Due to the reduction in the number of immigrants due to the new crown pandemic, the German population has contracted slightly for the first time in nearly a decade. According to data from the German Federal Statistical Office on the 13th, as of the end of June, about 83.1 million people lived in Germany, and the population decreased by 40,000, or 0.05%, in the first half of the year.

Germany’s anti-epidemic measures are more moderate than other European countries. Bars, cafes and restaurants in cities such as Berlin are currently closed at 11 pm and the number of parties is also limited. Last weekend, German Chancellor Angela Merkel held a video conference with the mayors of the 11 largest cities in Germany to discuss whether to adopt stricter measures. Before Merkel held a meeting with 16 state leaders on the 14th, Bavarian Governor Soder urged Germany to reach a national agreement to jointly develop a route to contain the spread of the new crown virus in the next four weeks, otherwise it may "lost" control".

The area hardest hit by the first wave of the epidemic fell again

In France, there has been a surge in new infections since the beginning of September. As Toulouse and Montpellier were placed on the highest alert status on the evening of the 11th, 9 cities have been subject to strict restrictions. In the country’s regional alert level system, currently about two-thirds belong to the red zone where the “virus is spreading”.

The percentage of positive tests in France has also risen to 11.5%, twice the rate three weeks ago. In Paris and its surrounding areas, the percentage of positive tests reached 17%. Currently, 175,000 people are tested every day across the country.

French Prime Minister Jean Castex warned on the 13th that the country is in the second wave of severe epidemics. He warned the people not to "take it lightly" and did not rule out another lockdown of the city. French health officials admitted that the virus is spreading rapidly across the country, causing pressure on hospitals to increase day by day.

Castel said that too many people did not realize that "the second wave (epidemic) has arrived." He also admitted that the StopCovid tracking application launched by the government in June was not effective. The downloads so far are only 2.6 million. He said the government The new version that will be released on the 22nd of this month is being studied.

Forced by the soaring infection rate and the increase in the number of hospitalizations, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced the implementation of a new three-level alert system on the 12th. In the highest-risk areas such as Liverpool, new restrictions will be implemented from the 14th, bars, fitness Museums, civic centers, betting shops and casinos must be closed.

The British government hinted that if the new measures do not work, it does not rule out taking more measures. Johnson warned that local governments in northern England, which resisted restrictions, would have "unforgivable" consequences if they did not take corresponding actions.

On the evening of the 13th, the Northern Ireland local government announced that it would re-enter the strict lockdown before England, Scotland and Wales. Bars and restaurants will be closed for four weeks and schools will be closed for two weeks except for sales.

Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte also imposed new restrictions on gatherings, restaurants, sports and school activities on the 13th to slow the surge of new coronavirus infections.

After Spain lifted its strict national closure measures at the end of June, the infection rate began to rise again almost immediately. So far Spain is still the country with the most infections in Europe, with nearly 60,000 new cases last week. The Spanish authorities have been taking local restrictions in response to the epidemic, but after the Madrid area became the largest source of new infections, the central government’s restrictions on Madrid and its surrounding areas have been strongly resisted by the local government.

Radar Covid, a tracking application launched by the Spanish Ministry of Health, is also downloaded and used by less than 10% of Spaniards.

The number of new infections and deaths in Russia on the 13th also set the highest record in the country since the pandemic. There were 244 deaths within 24 hours and nearly 14,000 new infections, but Popova, the head of the country’s health supervision agency (Anna Popova) stated that there is no plan to re-impose the blockade. "We don't see the meaning of doing this." She said.

In terms of the total number of infections, Russia ranked fourth in the world with more than 1.3 million cases, after the United States, India and Brazil. At present, Russian restaurants, theaters and nightclubs are open normally. In Moscow, companies are required to ensure that one third of employees work from home.

The WHO weekly epidemiology report released on the 13th pointed out that the global new cases have been relatively stable in the past three weeks, but the overall situation has masked the alarming growth in many countries and regions, especially in Europe, where the second wave of epidemics has exceeded The previous peak, although some of the reasons are due to increased testing.

The WHO reported that France, Russia, the United Kingdom, Spain and Israel reported the highest number of new cases in the past week, with Russia, the United Kingdom, Ukraine and several other countries also reporting the highest number of new deaths.

Mike Ryan, executive director of the WHO Health Emergencies Programme, said at a previous Geneva press conference that the increase in hospitalizations in the UK, France, Ireland and other European countries is worrying. Given that the current hospitalization rate for COVID-19 is still relatively low, he warned against making assumptions about the “disconnection” between the current high number of cases and the low number of deaths. “Unless we are very, very careful, these (both) may be very, very serious and catastrophic. Sexually reconnect." Ryan said.

The first senior official who has tested positive for the new crown has appeared among EU commissioners. Mariya Gabriel from Bulgaria tested negative for the first time on the 12th after the positive test results of her team members, but the second test result was positive. She is responsible for EU innovation, research, culture, education and youth affairs. The executive committee members who had been in close contact with her immediately went into self-isolation.

When will the destroyed economy recover

The impact of the epidemic continues. The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics released on the 13th showed that the country’s unemployment rate rose sharply from 4.1% announced in July to 4.5%. This is the fastest rate of deterioration in the unemployment rate since the 2008 financial crisis. The number of layoffs has also increased. The fastest growth rate on record.

According to data released by the UK National Bureau of Statistics, 1.52 million people were unemployed from June to August, an increase of 209,000 year-on-year and an increase of 138,000 month-on-month; the number of layoffs doubled in the past three months, from 114,000 to 227,000.

The main reason for the increase in unemployment is that self-employed men have lost their jobs due to the epidemic, while part-time women have completely withdrawn from the job market.

Since the beginning of this year, the total number of employed people has fallen by 480,000, of which young people aged 16 to 24 account for 60%. The National Bureau of Statistics of the United Kingdom pointed out that young workers, part-time workers and self-employed individuals have been hit hardest. Britain’s flexible labor market means that the first round of layoffs tends to be concentrated among self-employed, part-time workers and temporary workers. The unemployment rate among young people aged 16 to 24 has reached 13.4%.

Smith believes that as the entire United Kingdom adopts new restrictions in response to the epidemic, the challenges facing the job market are intensifying. Although the unemployment rate was still at a low 4.5% in the three months to August, the current reference value of this indicator must be discounted in view of the government's support measures such as wage subsidies. Several analysts warned that in the second wave of Covid-19, the unemployment rate is expected to continue to climb and exceed the 2008 financial crisis. Tony Wilson, director of the UK Employment Research Institute, predicts that there will be at least 600,000 layoffs by the end of the year.

The Secretary General of the British Chamber of Commerce (TUC) Frances O'Grady urged the government to strengthen the wage subsidy program. "We are in a desperate situation of an unemployment crisis," he said. "The government must take immediate action to protect and create jobs. Expanding the work support program is a step in the right direction, but it is still insufficient."

In response to the latest employment data, British Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak said that he is trying to save as many jobs as possible and help those who have been fired return to work. He suggested that people who are unemployed during the pandemic should consider participating in retraining and apprenticeships. The government has provided a £2 billion support program for this.

"Unfortunately, we will not be able to save every job." He said.

In order to avoid causing more damage to the economy, the British government did not adopt the previous comprehensive blockade proposal of the Scientific Advisory Panel. In late September, the government scientific advisory group issued a report stating that unless the government takes immediate action to implement a two-week short-term comprehensive lockdown policy to reduce the spread of the new crown virus, the country will face a huge disaster with "unimaginable" consequences.

At that time, given that the number of new infections in all age groups across the country was rising, and the number of infections doubled every 7 to 8 days, the expert group proposed five measures, including the implementation of a short-term comprehensive lockdown (multiple times), and recommended all people who can work from home Work at home, prohibit family gatherings, close all bars, restaurants, cafes, indoor gymnasiums and barber shops, and all university teaching should be conducted online unless absolutely necessary.

The British government finally adopted only one of the policy recommendations-advising people to work from home if possible.

The epidemic is not over yet, but it has left lasting scars on the economy. The Institute of Finance Research (IFS), a think tank, issued a report on the 13th, stating that due to the increase in expenditures by the British government in response to the epidemic and the decline in tax revenues during the worst recession in history, public borrowing is expected to reach 350 billion pounds this year. The highest peacetime borrowing figure ever; the budget deficit is expected to remain at approximately 151 billion pounds through 2024-25, almost three times the 58 billion pounds predicted before the pandemic. The report pointed out that the government may need to make "difficult decisions" on increasing taxes or reducing spending.

The Governor of the Bank of England (Andrew Bailey) publicly stated in a meeting of the House of Lords on the 13th that based on the resistance brought by the second wave of the epidemic and the public’s cautious attitude towards spending and social activities after the pandemic, he would not It is believed that there is a legendary "V-shaped" economic recovery.

He pointed out that economic output in the third quarter may be 9%-10% lower than a year ago. The quarterly GDP data for the second quarter fell by 22% year-on-year.

The Bank of England believes that by 2024-25, at least 40 billion pounds of tax increases or spending cuts are needed to maintain the national debt at about 100% of GDP; it is even more important to return government debt to pre-pandemic levels. difficult.

In the World Economic Outlook report published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on the 13th, the UK’s economic forecast data for this year was revised up from a 10.2% contraction to a contraction of 9.8%, which is the same as France. Among European countries, the worst expected Spain is GDP. It shrank by 12.8%; Italy shrank by 10.6%; Europe's "locomotive" Germany shrank by 6%.

In Spain, which has been hit hard by the new crown epidemic, the government has to avoid the soaring infection rate and save the dying local economy. Recently, it has established a travel corridor between the Balearic Islands and the Canary Islands and European countries. Tourists in areas with a cumulative incidence rate of less than 50 per 100,000 inhabitants within 14 days do not need to undergo a new crown test when entering these two tourist attractions. The economies of these two places are heavily dependent on British and German tourists. Since the pandemic, the unemployment rate in the Balearic Islands has increased by 90% year-on-year; the GDP of the Canary Islands has fallen by 32.6%, and the unemployment rate has reached 40%.

In France, which is about to enter the Halloween holiday, the original small tourist season of autumn did not appear. According to the latest data from the travel consulting agency ProTourisme, the number of bookings for hotels, campsites, rental houses, and resorts in France has fallen by 50% over the same period last year, and bookings abroad have fallen by 80%. France's tourism turnover in 2019 was 175 billion euros. From mid-March to the end of September this year, the tourism turnover decreased by 42 billion euros compared with the same period last year; it is expected to decrease by another 15 billion euros by the end of this year.

The French Tourism Commission estimates that by the end of this year, 25%-30% of family hotels in Paris may go bankrupt.

The chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, Gita Gopinath, wrote on her social account on the 13th: The pandemic will leave profound and lasting scars caused by unemployment, weak investment and children’s deprivation of education. And it will have a serious impact on efforts to improve living standards on a global scale.