The United States is about to start a trade war again! As the election approaches, Trump’s extreme policies are getting more and more crazy. Where will the world be dragged?

 On the evening of October 2nd, the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) officially announced that it would launch a "301 investigation" on Vietnam's timber and exchange rate policies. In accordance with the instructions of US President Trump, the U.S. Trade Representative will investigate Vietnam’s behaviors, policies and practices related to the import or use of “illegal logging or illegal trade” timber, as well as behaviors that may cause the devaluation of Vietnam’s currency and damage U.S. businesses. Policies and practices.

In 2019, the total export value of Vietnam's timber and wood products was 10.647 billion U.S. dollars, and the export value to the United States reached 5.33 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for about 50% of all Vietnam's timber and wood products exports, and the market grew by more than 37% year-on-year. If relevant US policies are finally implemented, the Vietnamese timber industry will suffer a major blow.

The United States is about to start a trade war again! As the election approaches, Trump’s extreme policies are getting more and more crazy. Where will the world be dragged?

Of course, Vietnam’s exports of timber and wood products account for only 4% of its total exports, and its exports to the United States account for a lower proportion. No matter how the United States ultimately decides, it will not have a significant impact on Vietnam’s overall export situation. However, as the United States will also conduct corresponding investigations on the Vietnamese Dong exchange rate this time, how the results will have a vital impact on the future trend of Vietnam’s exports.

Considering that it takes several months to write the report, and the introduction of various policies in the future also requires a corresponding time period, the implementation of the relevant policies of the United States on Vietnam will have to wait until after the general election anyway. Therefore, whether to decide to advance various investigations and implement policies is still quite variable, and there are still various uncertainties in the future direction of US-Vietnam economic and trade relations.

As far as the current US government is concerned, it still chooses a more radical trade route before the general election. Although it has its consistently strong "America First" endorsement, it is an important means for it to face the advantages of the Democratic Party at a critical time to win the support of specific voters. The “301 Investigation” launched by the US this time mainly focused on the primary processed products related to the timber industry, involving a certain range of blue-collar workers’ interests and related business owners. The group is limited, but the declaration is strong.

The United States is about to start a trade war again! As the election approaches, Trump’s extreme policies are getting more and more crazy. Where will the world be dragged?

Vietnam's GDP per capita in 2019 was US$2715, which is less than 5% of the average American. Fighting against such a medium-sized developing country that is still very backward and poses no threat to the United States does not demonstrate the unique strength of the United States, but exposes the weakness behind the hegemony. Although the U.S. still has many policy tools, it is impossible for Vietnam to introduce deterrent countermeasures, but the U.S. uses these few or unused policy tools to such countries, which means that the cost of maintaining the hegemonic system is becoming unbearable for it. The direction of development.

In the four years since the Trump administration has been in power, it has used a businessman mentality to govern the country. Everything must be dealt with. It has extremely safeguarded the interests of the United States. It has used various domestic laws and administrative methods to bully other countries’ enterprises and industries. The whole world is the enemy, putting the United States on the opposite side of world development. This "willful" foreign policy is going to extremes in recent months as the US election heats up.

The United States is about to start a trade war again! As the election approaches, Trump’s extreme policies are getting more and more crazy. Where will the world be dragged?

Faced with the unfavorable situation of the hollowing out of the manufacturing industry, the United States is of course also anxious. However, the White House has never seriously thought about how to encourage industrial innovation to reorganize the layout, and use the advantages of value chain extension and industrial restructuring brought about by globalization to establish new industrial technological advantages. On the contrary, it moves against globalization. Trade wars between Europe and China are raging, and long-arm jurisdictions have become more frequent, and many trading partners have suffered greatly. The rapid loss of the soft power accumulated by the United States since World War II will accelerate the transition from quantitative to qualitative change in the future.

Global doubts about whether the United States can contribute to world peace and development are generally growing. The American practice of tabooing doctors and even prescribing prescriptions has seriously interfered with the normal development of the world economy. Especially since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, the US's beggar-thy-neighbor approach has not yet converged. Instead, it has intensified and lost its due responsibility as a world power. If the owner of the White House continues to develop isolationism and American first thinking in order to cater to voters, Washington will find that those so-called "America first" policies fundamentally violate the laws of the market and will eventually backfire the voters that they intended to please.